The Role of Chance in History : Blackadder, Black Swans and Inevitability
I used to be skeptical of the role of chance in history. In my mind there were broad, historical forces at work that lent a certain 'inevitability' to some events. Chance might decide the when and how exactly, but the broad events were bound to happen given the long term causes. A classic example is World War One. Given the military and diplomatic build-up, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand is often seen as a 'spark' that lit a very well prepared bonfire. In a comical but well known comment in the British comedy Blackadder, Rowan Atkinsons character explains (with pencils up his nose and underpants on his head of course), after listing the various long term causes, that :"of course the real reason there was a war, was that it was just too much trouble not to have a war". It's a clever characterisation of a conflict that now looks almost inevitable with hindsight. I used to view the War like this myself, almost like a boxing match had been set up and
